Muslims, Non-Religious Canadians Expected To Be Focal Points Of Major Statistics Canada Release

Canada’s rapidly increasing Muslim population is expected to be a huge focus of this week’s National Household Survey, whose first results will be released May 8 by Statistics Canada. The voluntary survey, which took the place of the long-form census in 2011, will provide the first comprehensive look at religion in this country in 10 years.

During that decade, the number of Muslims in Canada has soared by more than 62 per cent, and is projected to triple – to at least 2.87 million – in the next 18 years. It’s no wonder insiders say the updated faith figures will be of great interest to many Canadians, although, says one expert, “probably, in most cases, not for the right reasons.”

“There seems to be growing concern about the growth of Islam, arising from high-profile incidents in the news,” said Jack Jedwab, executive director of the Association for Canadian Studies. “That may lend itself to more debate about immigration and multiculturalism – which would be the wrong conclusion to draw, to my point of view.”

Those high profile events include a horrific bombing attack on the Boston marathon, and an alleged plot to derail a passenger train in Canada. In both cases, the authorities have pointed to suspects who are Muslim.

In March, Leger Marketing conducted a 1,500-person survey for the ACS in which fewer than half of respondents – 46 per cent – held a positive opinion of Muslims (by contrast, 70 per cent held favourable views of Catholics, 74 per cent for Protestants, 69 per cent for Jews and 61 per cent for atheists). Nearly four in 10 (38 per cent) said they trusted Muslims “very little” or “not at all.”

Notably, the poll was conducted prior to the recent terror plot against Via Rail and the Boston Marathon bombing. The Muslim community has vehemently denounced both events as crimes against Islam, not actions taken in the name of it.

The National Household Survey – or NHS – conducted in 2011 drew a response rate of 68.6 per cent from the 4.5 million households invited to participate, representing about one in five Canadian households. It collected information on religious affiliation across the country; most frequently reported religious denominations; the effect of immigration on reporting of religious denominations; and the proportion of people with no religious affiliation (prior to 1971, less than one per cent of Canadians claimed no religion; by the 2001 census, it had spiked to 16.5 per cent).

Statisticians caution there is no way of knowing how good or bad the information will be from the May 8 release. The voluntary nature of the survey, which replaced the once-mandatory long-form census, leaves gaps in the data from groups that tend not to respond to voluntary surveys, including aboriginals, new immigrants and low-income families.

Experts do believe the data should provide a fairly accurate broad-scale picture of Canada, but that the smaller the group surveyed, the less reliable the information.

Broadly, “I expect an increase in the number of people who say (they have) no religion,” said Jedwab. “I also expect to see increases in people who identify with religions other than Christian … The net result would be a decrease in the number of people who identify as Catholic or Protestant.”

Irving Hexham, professor of religious studies at the University of Calgary, forecasts growth in Hispanic Catholicism; growth in Chinese immigrants who identify as Christian; and a significant rise in the Muslim population, particularly in the Western provinces and in Toronto.

“Religion is regarded, generally, by the Canadian establishment as a private concern that has nothing to do with society,” said Hexham. “But people are maintaining their roots much longer and deeper than in the past, and those roots often involve violent conflict. We need to know about that: where things are likely to occur, or unlikely to occur, and how people are assimilating.”

Those hoping for nuance in the numbers, however, might be disappointed. Pamela Dickey Young, a professor of religion at Queen’s University, says the data will simply act as a photograph of a moment in time.

“It gives us a picture of ourselves that may not be quite the same as our notion of ourselves,” said Dickey Young.

“My students can never believe that in the last census, in 2001, 77 per cent of Canadians called themselves Christians. You give them that statistic and they all say, ‘Wow, we thought Canada was way more pluralistic and multicultural than that!’”

Postmedia News will have full coverage of the National Household Survey, with updated demographic portraits expected on Aboriginals; immigration and citizenship; ancestry; language; and visible minorities.