Can Democracy Stop Terrorism?

WHAT  FREEDOM  BRINGS

THE  UNITED  STATES  is engaged  in what  President  George  W. Bush  has  called  a "generational challenge"  to  instill democracy  in the Arab world.  The  Bush  administration  and  its defenders  contend  that this push  for Arab  democracy will  not only  spread American  values but also  improve U.S.  security. As  democracy  grows  in  the Arab  world, the thinking goes,  the region will  stop generating anti-American terrorism. Promoting  democracy  in the Middle  East  is therefore not merely  consistent with U. S. Security goals; it is necessary to achieve them.

But  this  begs  a  fundamental  question:  Is  it  true  that  the more democratic  a country  becomes,  the  less  likely  it is to produce  terrorists and  terrorist groups?  In other words,  is the  security  rationale  for promoting  democracy  in the Arab world  based  on  a sound  premise?

Unfortunately,  the  answer  appears  to  be  no.  Although  what  is known  about  terrorism  is admittedly  incomplete,  the data  available do not  show  a strong  relationship between  democracy  and an absence of  or  a reduction  in terrorism. Terrorism  appears  to stem  from factors much  more  specific  than  regime  type. Nor  is  it  likely  that democratization  would  end  the  current  campaign  against  the United States.  Al  Qaeda  and  like-minded  groups  are  not  fighting  for democracy  in  the Muslim  world;  they  are fighting  to  impose  their vision  of  an  Islamic  state. Nor  is there any evidence  that democracy in the Arab world  would  "drain the swamp," eliminating  soft  support for terrorist organizations  among  the Arab  public  and  reducing  the number of potential recruits for them.

Even  if democracy were  achieved  in  the Middle  East, what  kind  of  governments  would  it produce? Would  they  cooperate with  the United States on important policy objectives besides curbing terrorism,  such as advancing the Arab-Israeli peace process, maintaining security in  the Persian Gulf,  and ensuring  steady  supplies of  oil? No  one  can predict  the  course  a new  democracy will  take, but  based  on  public opinion  surveys and  recent elections  in the Arab world,  the advent of democracy  there seems  likely  to produce  new  Islamist governments that would  be much  less willing  to cooperate with  the United  States than are the current authoritarian  rulers.