Will the Lebanese interior succeed in achieving cohesion before the foreign pressure?

It seems that the equation of "All people are winners," which has been governing the relationship between the Lebanese factions especially after the end of the civil war by the Taif Agreement in 1989, is facing difficulties that could turn it to the opposite "All people are losers"!

Since the repeated postponement of the indictment declaration in the case of the assassinating the former Prime Minister Rafik Al Hariri in 2005 (who was killed along with more than 20 people), and the Lebanese interior ripples of subsequent changes which the latest mass media may fail to follow-up, which makes "Lebanon" on the brink of flammable turbulence overnight.

According to press leaks, "the indictment" (which does not necessarily mean that the accused person is guilty, but allows his arrest for trial) is going to accuse people of "Hezbollah" of assassinating Rafik Al Hariri; the matter that was rejected by the party (which is leading the opposition of March 8), and considered the accusation is a decisive phase that threatens the cohesion of the Lebanese interior because the court —in its view— is politicized and seeks to condemn the party and the resistance no matter who the criminal is, especially after the exposure of the so-called "false witnesses" who testified falsely as stated in the reports of the International Commission of Inquiry, and their testimonies caused the arrest of four Lebanese generals who were found innocent later.

And after the discovery of intelligence networks working for Israel and listening devices on the network of "Hezbollah" and the connections of Lebanon. Hezbollah demanded the former Lebanese government, headed by Saad Al Hariri to withdraw its support for the International Tribunal, which was formed in 2007 at the request of the Lebanese government, under resolution 1757 of the Security Council with the participation of Lebanese judges, but the March 14 led by Saad Al Hariri reiterated his commitment to the court and moved forward with it to the end.

The Saudi-Syrian initiative:

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Syria submitted an initiative to reconcile the various Lebanese sects, and though the details of the initiative were not announced, but press leaks said that it consisted of three main points: The withdrawal of Lebanese judges from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon; stopping the Lebanese contribution in financing the Court; cancelling the Memorandum of Understanding signed between Lebanon and the Court, which regulates the cooperation between the two sides.

In contrast, the initiative according to these leaks emphasized on not to use Hezbollah's weapons at home and activating the work of the state institutions which were paralyzed for months, in addition to the withdrawal of Syrian arrest warrant for 33 people from March 14.

After the stumble of the Saudi-Syrian initiative, Saudi Arabia announced its withdrawal from the mediation, and its Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal said that "the situation in Lebanon is unstable and dangerous," and added that "if things have come to separation and division of Lebanon, Lebanon as a state containing this type of peaceful coexistence between religions, nationalities, and different groups will end forever."

Then the Turks and the Qataris involved in the issue, and the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and the Qatari Foreign Minister Hamad ibn Jassim went to meet the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad for consultations on the initiative, then they went to Lebanon and met the Lebanese factions, but after two days of continuous work, they left Lebanon and announced the stop of their efforts in the absence of an adequate response to their endeavors.

They announced —according to their statement— that through their efforts a paper has been formulated to take into account the basic and legal requirements to resolve the current crisis in Lebanon on the basis of the Saudi-Syrian paper, but because of some reservations, they decided to stop their efforts and leave Beirut to consult with their leaderships, but they stressed they are ready to resume mediation if the Lebanese parties want that.

Escalation:

During the visit of the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri to the USA, the opposition led by Hezbollah decided to withdraw its eleven ministers from the government in order to drop it and Saad Al Hariri will be charged to head a caretaker government, then it is decided to go to parliamentary counseling conducted by President Michel Suleiman to name another Prime Minister.

The opposition did not stop at that, but announced it will not nominate Al Hariri again and announced its candidacy for Najib Mikati who had served as prime minister after the assassination of Rafik Al Hariri for three months before the taking over of Saad Al Hariri. Although the outcome of consultation (Tuesday, 25/1) assigned the candidate of the opposition to form a new government after the support of Walid Jumblatt and his bloc, (Mikati gained 68 votes out of 128 compared to 60 for Al Hariri), it will not increase the Lebanese interior but more complex, especially in light of March 14's announcement that it will not participate in the government formed by the opposition, and its confirmation that the government of "Mikati" is not a national consensus government, but it is one-team government.

Some speculations indicated that the government of Mikati will seek to delegitimize the court investigating the assassination of Al Hariri, which may trigger the situation.

After his appointment, Najib Mikati said that his hand is stretched out to all Lebanese parties to participate in the government. And about his position toward the International Tribunal, he said: "I do not have any specific position or any improvised position. There are some jurists who would study the subject and accordingly they will take the appropriate decision without forgetting the blood of the martyrs."

He added: "The open dialogue within the constitutional institutions is the only solution, and if the President requested that any controversial topic would be open for discussion, it will be, but if it can be resolved within the constitutional institutions, so it will be."

As for his position from the "Hezbollah" (especially that the party nominated him to head the government), Mikati said: "The nomination was natural and it does not bound me to any political position, but what I care for is the protection of the national resistance."

From his part, Hezbollah appealed in the speech of its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, March 14 team to cooperate with Mikati to form a national salvation government, considering that the Lebanese are before a real chance of reunion, no winners or losers. In the same time, he called on the international community to respect the democratic choice of the Lebanese people.

Foreign countries are looking for their own interests:

Although the foreign-countries factor was always clear and "almost-static" in the former Lebanese crises where Lebanon was turned into a conflict arena and liquidation of accounts between the foreign forces, but the emergence of this factor now is very present, especially in light of disruption of regional balance of power which is in favor of Israel, and a fortiori the USA, and France which has a historic presence in Lebanon. Therefore, some people trace back the Lebanese crisis to the strained relationship between America and Iran, which is accused of using Hezbollah and the resistance as a card to face the dispute over its nuclear program, and to the US pressure on Syria to engage in the so-called "peace process" to stop its support for Hezbollah.

Others pointed out that the Mossad is involved in the assassination of Al Hariri in cooperation with some Lebanese parties because the eruption of the situation there pours in the interest of the Zionist entity because Lebanon is one of the Frontline States.

This overlap between the interests of third parties exacerbated the Lebanese internal situation and made it subject to them. Moreover, it is hard to imagine that they would put the interest of Lebanon within their priorities as some analysts say.

Between chaos and tension:

Observers fear that the political convulsion and the exchange of accusations between the Lebanese parties would lead to security tension, especially after the release of the indictment in the assassination of Al Hariri, drawing the attention that Lebanon is a forest of arms, which the hidden is no less than the announced!

The demonstrations —which started on Monday, 24/1 in the city of Tripoli in north Lebanon led by March 14 as an objection to the choice of the opposition to Najib Mikati— were clamorous then continued after naming the prime minister which resulted in the injury of more than 20 and the cutting of some roads. On the other hand, Saad Al Hariri denounced the demonstrations of his supporters, and declared his rejection to break the law and every manifestations of riots that accompanied the popular movements and distorted with severe regret the noble national goals for these movements. Furthermore, Al Hariri refused to resort to streets as means of ending political disagreements.

If some people rule out the renewal of the Lebanese civil war again based on that Hezbollah is the only one who has weapons, it is unlikely if things got worse, some foreign forces (led by the United States) would interfere under the pretext of protecting some parties.

Will the Lebanon interior succeed in achieving coherence before the foreign pressure and restoring the balance on the basis of mutual coexistence between its sects, which made Lebanon a distinctive country and a model worthy of emulation?!