Is it true there is a 'startling' rise in the birthrate of British Muslims?

Almost a tenth of babies and toddlers in England and Wales are Muslim, declared the Times on its front page on Friday, indicating what it describes as a "startling shift" in the demographic trend in England and Wales. So where did the figures come from and are they as revealing as claimed?

The numbers originate from a 2011 census release first published by the Office for National Statistics in May 2013 and in more detail in November as a specially commissioned ad hoc table.

The figures do not calculate birthrate as such, but show that almost a tenth of babies and toddlers (under-fives) in England and Wales are Muslim. Of 3.5 million children up to the age of four in England and Wales recorded in the 2011 census, 317,952 (or 9.1%) were Muslim.

The Times report also states "the percentage of Muslims among the under-fives is almost twice as high as in the general population". That is correct. According to the census figures, 4.8% of the 56.1 million resident population of England and Wales in 2011 were Muslim, and as stated above 9.1% of all under-fives in the population were Muslim.

In addition, the story points out that fewer than one in 200 over-85s are Muslim – an indication they claim of the "extent to which birthrate is changing the UK's religious demographic". The census figures show that of a population of 1.3 million over-85s in 2011, only 5,513 were Muslim.