The Future of the Global Muslim Population

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TABLE OF CONTENTS Pa g e Preface 7 Map: Projected Distribution of Muslim Population by Country and Territory, 2030 10 Executive Summary 13 Main Factors Driving Population Growth 25 Fertility 25 Life Expectancy at Birth 31 Migration 37 Age Structure 41 Related Factors 49 Education 49 Economic Well-Being 53 Contraception and Family Planning 57 Urbanization 61 Conversion 65 Regional Distribution of Muslims 67 Asia-Pacific 69 Middle East-North Africa 89 Sub-Saharan Africa 105 Europe 121 Americas 137 Sunni and Shia Muslims 153 Muslim-Majority Countries 155 Table: World Muslim Population by Region and Country, 1990-2030 158 Appendix A: Methodology 165 Appendix B: Data Sources by Country 179 Appendix C: Advisers and Consultants 205